FORT WORTH, TX — A significant heavy rain event is underway across North Texas. The latest National Weather Service rainfall graphics show widespread totals of 2 to 4 inches likely for the heart of the region through Thursday evening. The forecast period runs from 7 p.m. Monday, September 28, through 7 p.m. Thursday, October 1, and does not yet include any more rain that may fall on Friday. Some spots could see much more than the official forecast shows, possibly 7 to 10 inches, if storms repeatedly train over the same areas.
Official Forecast Highlights the Heart of North Texas
The official National Weather Service forecast puts the heaviest rain across the Dallas–Fort Worth Metroplex and the counties to the north and west. Denton leads the forecast with about 4.1 inches. Fort Worth and Mineral Wells are both near 3.7 inches, and Bowie and Hamilton are around 3.6 inches.
Dallas, Sherman, Graham, Stephenville, Hillsboro and Brownwood are each forecast to get about 3.1 inches. Farther west, Wichita Falls is near 2.6 inches, Abilene and Cisco about 2.7 inches, and San Angelo and Sonora around 2.8 inches. The heaviest band also reaches southward toward Lampasas at about 2.8 inches and Brady near 2.7 inches.
Totals Drop Off Sharply in East Texas
The forecast shows a clear drop-off in rain totals toward East Texas. Waco is forecast near 2.4 inches, Temple around 2.3 inches, and Greenville about 2.4 inches. Corsicana is near 2.0 inches, while Paris is around 1.9 inches and Canton near 1.7 inches.
Farther east and southeast, amounts drop quickly. Groesbeck is near 1.5 inches, Mount Pleasant about 1.3 inches, and Hearne near 1.2 inches. Palestine and Centerville are forecast to get less than an inch. Longview, Lufkin, Livingston and Center may see only a few tenths of an inch.
Low-End Scenario Still Brings Meaningful Rain
The NWS low-end scenario, which represents the floor of what could happen, shows widespread totals of 0.5 to 2 inches across North Texas. There is a 90 percent chance that actual totals end up higher than this scenario. It’s a useful baseline, but the region will very likely see much more rain than the low-end numbers suggest.
Even in this conservative case, several areas across the Metroplex and western North Texas would still pick up enough rain to cause ponding and minor flooding in poorly drained spots.
High-End Scenario Shows 4 to 5 Inches or More
The high-end scenario shows what could happen if the setup reaches its full potential. There is about a 10 percent chance of widespread totals of 4 to 5 inches, with locally higher amounts. In this scenario, the heaviest totals would cover much of the Dallas–Fort Worth area and the counties to the west, including Denton, Mineral Wells, Stephenville and Graham.
The reasonable range graphic from the NWS shows 2 to 4 inches as the most likely range for most of North Texas, though many locations may end up above that range.
Training Storms Could Push Totals to 7 to 10 Inches
One of the biggest concerns in this setup is training storms, which happen when repeated rounds of heavy rain move over the same locations. It’s impossible to predict exactly where training will set up. Some areas could get 7 to 10 inches of rain, well above the official forecast averages.
Rain like that could cause serious flash flooding, especially in urban areas of the Metroplex, where concrete and pavement send water straight into streets, underpasses and storm drains. Creeks and streams across Denton, Tarrant, Dallas, Parker and Palo Pinto counties could rise quickly during heavy downpours.
Friday Rain Not Yet Included
These totals cover only the period through 7 p.m. Thursday. Any more rain on Friday would add to these amounts, and updated forecasts later in the week will show whether rain lingers into the weekend.
Residents across North Texas should prepare now by clearing gutters and storm drains, moving vehicles out of flood-prone areas, and making sure phones can receive Wireless Emergency Alerts. Most importantly, never drive through flooded roadways. Turn around, don’t drown.
For continuing coverage of this heavy rain event and weather developments across Texas and the United States, visit diamondprowl.com.
